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What’s your winning probability?


8:51 am
December 19, 2011



Post edited 11:16 am – December 19, 2011 by GreatTradingSystems

Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?

probability Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: Whats your winning probability?


FOREX COACH Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your Winning Probability?


Do you have the answer to this question?


If you don’t, then probably you should NOT even trade.


It is a very simple question that you should ask yourself before you take every trade.




If it is anything lesser than 60%, skip the trade.


You see it makes no sense at all for you to take a trade that has lesser than a 60% chance of winning.


If it’s lesser than a 50% chance of winning, why even trade?


You are bound to lose on that trade right?


If it is a 50% chance of winning. You are betting on your luck.


That’s gambling, that is NOT trading.


If it is a 60% or higher chance of winning. And if you only take trades that have a 60% or higher chance of winning.


Where do you think your account size will go? UP of course.


Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?


Having a 60% and higher winning probability for that trade means you have an edge over the market.


You SHOULD consistently take trades that are over 60% chance of winning.


But if on occasions where you take a trade that is a 50% chance of winning.


You will spoil your entire game and your entire trading plan.


That is because you are adding a random variable to your trades.


And these random variables will disrupt your account growth.


For example:


Trader A) Out of 20 trades, he take trades that are only 60% or higher winning probability.


Trader B) Out of 20 trades, he takes 10 trades that are of 60% or higher winning probability and 10 trades of lesser than 60% winning probability.


Trader C) Out of 20 trades, he doesn’t care about the winning probability. He just take trades when he likes it or just based on his gut feel.


Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?


Which trader do you think has a better chance of growing his forex account?


Trader A of course!


Which trader trades most like you?


If you are at trader B or trader C stage, you should stop your trading now.


And reflect on this.


This vital question is something that you must ask yourself the next time you trade.


“What is my winning probability for this trade?”


Ezekiel Chew
Asia #1 Forex Mentor

11:18 am
December 19, 2011



"If it is a 50% chance of winning. You are betting on your luck."


you would have a greater probability of the trade winning but that does not mean the probability of you making a profit is greater.


It is a basic mistake most new traders make. They think they will make more money with a 90% strike rate than they would with a 45% strike rate.

School boy error.

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